According to Scientist, Third Wave of Covid-19 Unlikely to be as Severe as Second Wave
Summary: The third wave of Covid infections seems unlikely to be as strong as the second wave, according to a model study by a team of scientists from the Indian Council Of Medical Research (ICMR) and Imperial College London, UK. The rapid rise in vaccine efforts, says research, could play a key role in reducing the current and future waves of disease. India’s first wave of SARSCoV-2 infection started in late January 2020 with the highest number found in mid-September. This phase was small compared to the second wave that followed, from mid-February 2021 onwards, indicating an explosive spread across the country. A major factor driving this second wave is the emergence of highly contagious SARS-CoV-2 variants, most notably B.1.1.7 (Alpha variants) and B.1.617.2 (Delta variants), where this has played a major role in recent months.
Introduction:
A second wave of coronavirus invaded the land and caused extensive destruction and human death. While it is still unclear, there are countless reports of the next third wave of Covid 19. Although there is no precise way to predict future tides of Covid variant, many types of statistics have suggested that the number of casualties and case records could be significantly higher. However, contradicting this evidence, many Indian scientists have previously stated that the same may not be so true. While there was usually a 15–16 week time gap between two waves in the epidemic, it was previously believed that the second wave of coronavirus, which flourished during the first weeks of May, would be followed by a third wave of the virus, from August to September. However, much of the research and sero research conducted in the provinces of India now points to delays — with the third wave expected to arrive in the country in the coming months, about December, accompanied by certain concerns and hopes. In addition to emphasizing the need to expand medical infrastructure and testing needs, experts also ensure that a third wave, even if it arrives, can spread to different regions. Some states, which were among those most affected by the tally and thus had high seroprevalence, may be slightly affected or may not notice a strong third wave.
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Third Covid-19 Wave Is Not As Strong As A Second Wave
The second wave of coronavirus saw many cases of COVID-19 in children coming forward and causing infections in children, which were once said to be less affected. The trend of infection and the increase in crime has led many to believe that behind the population, young, healthy people, the next wave will be a major threat to children. However, this may not be the case as there is no scientific evidence to support the same. Third-party waves have come from other countries — such as the UK and the USA — and are driven by a variety of factors, the study said. The results show that the third wave, if it had to happen, would probably not be as strong as the second wave, given the magnitude of the spread that has taken place in India, adds. Third-party waves have appeared in other countries, such as the UK and the US. For the wave to be destructive, at least 30 percent of previously infected people must completely lose their immune system, or the variant from the virus must have a reproductive (R) higher than 4.5, that is, each infected person should spread at least 4–5 and this should happen almost immediately after the end of the second wave, according to research.
Conclusion:
Overcrowding, the use of masks and physical fitness during social gatherings are all important factors that make up the transmission rate and therefore the spread of the population, the study warns. Lockdown release methods can be a visible driver of the third wave in India, depending on how successfully they close and control the transmission between the second wave especially when inserted in the ear.
